HD-DVD or BluRay... This will tell you whose ahead in the race

[BRUTAL1TY]

I found this site while snooping around the net. This website seems to give some pretty good information. Definitely a help in showing who might win the console and HD movie war.

The DVD Wars

[Wingman1977]

There is no console war. Only fanboys and the media say there is. Each system is taking a different route. The PS3 and 360 games are going to have just about the same games and they will look the same. Nintendo said that there not competing with Microsoft and Sony. Now, blu-ray & HD-DVD is a different story. There is a disc format war.

[HD NOW]

HD DVD is winning by a long margin.

More movies, better quality generally, and higher sales.

However, I would say that there is a lot of competition between the PS3 and 360 consoles also.

Based on what I've seen, the PS3 has a slightly faster CPU, but the graphics unit in the Xbox 360 is much better at HD resolutions.

Anyone who is interested in HD DVD should click their support for the petition if they have a second. Thanks!

Best regards,

Edward

[Anderlation]

Isn't this based off Amazon? Anyway HD-DVD is winning at the moment but like anything tides can turn.

I can't see that happening though as the attach rate of PS3 with software is poor roughly 0.81 per console!!! Then comes the movies, HD-DVD has better quality and a cheaper price!

[gps]

Nice find I've been looking to find something like this because I know nothing about sales figures between the two formats. I'm glad to see that HD-DVD is on top at the moment.

[ReaperMojo]

HD DVD will come out on top.

[Mata Usi]

Believing that Blue-Ray will inevitably and dramatically increase sales for the PS3 is a fallacy. It could be perceived as a selling point to the most casual of gamers, however, the vast majority of consumers purchase gaming consoles to ..... drum roll .... PLAY GAMES. I know it may be an alien concept to some but it’s true. “John Davison, editorial director of 1Up networks, a gaming network with 13 million monthly unique visitors, said most gamers are not interested in viewing films on the PS3". I agree and believe this could also be applied to the 360 with the HD-DVD player.

Dove Consulting conducted a study which revealed that only 13% of those surveyed owned an HDTV. Out of the 13% who did not own a HDTV, 81% of them said they were aware of HD technology. This number is consistent with similar studies conducted by various organizations and think tanks. Let’s assume that 13% is an accurate account of HDTV owners in the US for a moment. Let’s also assume that half of the 13% are not gamers. This means that the HD film an movie market for gamers will be only 6.5% of the total population.

There is not a large enough market to proclaim an HD-DVD - Blu-Ray war yet and I don’t think it is relevant in the gaming market as of right now. However, studies indicate that in the next 5 years the HDTV market will surge with lower manufacturing costs equaling lower prices for the consumer. When (and it is a question of when and not if) this happens, the “next gen” movie market will really begin. However, as far as gaming is concerned, I would much rather have the OPTION to buy a next gen movie format in the future than being forced to buy one right now but WTF do I know...........

[Anderlation]

Ah but you forgot, even if people aren't going to buy Blu ray movies, they have still bought a Blu ray player. So in theory that adds to the Blu ray figures. (Unfortuantely!) But you are right gaming should come first and then the features.

To me the 360 delivers on the purpose of gaming. It was built for gaming with the GPU in mind and adding that 512mb Ram.

[Wingman1977]

The factor that's going to determine which format is going to come out on top believe it or not, is the adult (XXX) industry. During the whole Betamax vs VHS wars of the 80's, the adult industry supported VHS (and we all know how that turned out). So far (that I know of), the adult industry has supported a format yet. Whichever one they do, smart money says that it will be the format that comes out on top.

[remixFA]

porn rules!!

umm...
i mean.... viva.... piniata!?

sony just loves trying to invent new formats.. none of which as ever taken off. I give em cred for trying, but obivously they keep screwing something up somewhere...

[Anderlation]

I think Vivid went to blu-ray, AFAIK they perfer blu-ray. The only studio i know that has sided with blu-ray is Digital Playground. However Joone (DP owner) does not want to stick to physical media. 60% of his revenue is made up of digital distribution and hes slowly moving to only digital distribution.

So this would make Xbox 360 the prime suspect, due to Video Marketplace. Although for some reason i can't see them doing it, as it is a family console

Also another interesting article

Nearly a year and a half ago I wrote a column saying that Blu-Ray wins or nothing does. This showcases the reality of doing predictions because while the analysis held up, events did not pan out as anticipated and by any current measure HD DVD will end this year with a decisive win.

The basis for the prediction, which did accurately point out that Sony’s win here might actually cost them more than a loss, was the PS3 and the forecast volumes for that product. Back in August of 2005 we did know that HD DVD, which used DVD production technology, would be easier to bring to market but it simply did not seem reasonable that Sony would put their PlayStation franchise at risk for anything but a technology they were absolutely certain they could bring to market on time.

That turned out to be incorrect. The problems with Blu-Ray have created extreme cost and execution problems for Sony and now their premier division (instead of being the profit center for Sony) is predicting they will take a $1.5B loss next year largely resulting from this decision. To put this in perspective, just think what would happen if Apple’s iPod group, instead of generating massive profit, suddenly dropped into massive loss. Now you can see why the Sony PlayStation division just changed out their top executives.

Why HD DVD is Winning

When you talk to either the HD DVD or the Blu-Ray camp you get the sense that neither actually watches movies much. Both cite features as the reason why folks will pick one or the other. Yes there is a lame shooting game in League of Extraordinary Gentlemen (Blu-Ray) and there are a ton of things you can do interactively in HD DVD (including changing car colors in one scene in The Fast and Furious III: Tokyo Drift). But the movie market moves on quality of movie, price of player, and price and availability of media.

At launch HD DVD players were about half the price of Blu-Ray players and the movie price for HD DVD is generally running about $5 less. In addition, many of the new HD DVD movies also have regular DVD side which means that buyers, most of which will have both HD DVD and DVD decks, will get better value with HD DVD than with Blu-Ray – that’s the theory anyways.

All that being said, the killing blow may have been done by Microsoft who decided to bring to market a $200 HD DVD option for their Xbox 360 which has been in market a year longer than Sony and is projected to have a near 20x installed base advantage by year end (10M Xbox 360 to 600K PS3). Note that both projections are aggressive but Sony was supposed to originally ship 2M PS3s into the market during the 4th quarter and actual numbers (given they had under 200K at launch) may be closer to 400K. And with a recall possible there is a chance they might not even make that. Add to this that the Xbox 360 HD DVD drive is for movies only, so each one counts for movie viewing while PS3s may not be used to watch movies and you have a situation where the active movie player advantage by year-end should be between 4x and 6x better for HD DVD over Blu-Ray.

Finally, HP who had been a big Blu-Ray supporter and dominates the Media Center PC market, introduced a $100 HD DVD upgrade for their PCs (Sony’s Blu-Ray VIAO solution was just dropped to $749). The impact of this last move is still too early to measure but there is no comparably priced (not even close) solution using Blu-Ray.

If you go to Amazon and look you can see HD DVDs are solidly ahead and this is before the impact of either the Microsoft or the HP moves, many of which won’t be opened until Christmas or haven’t yet been shipped (HP).

Now Sony will stick with a technology for years after the market has decided on another path and they do have some very strong supporters which include Dell, Apple, and Disney. Dell traditionally has been the PC bellwether company, Apple has the most loyal customer base, and Disney is the only Studio that people ask for by name. So these folks, particularly Sony, could drag this on for years. But if that is the case not only will many in the industry not make money, Sony will probably lose the most because they are still the ones doing the heavy lifting (In addition, after the battery problems, neither Dell nor Apple is as close to Sony as they had been).

Right now it appears impossible for Blu-Ray to gain a substantial lead on HD DVD, even after massive investment, they likely could only close the gap. If the HD market depends on the emergence of one as a standard and Blu-Ray no longer has a chance to be that standard, how long will it be before the Blu-Ray supporters follow HP and switch sides?

Do You Want One Standard?

Now you can evidently help drive this if you are so inclined. There is a petition that has been set up for you to voice your support if you believe that there should be only one and HD DVD is that one. You can find the petition here . Evidently they had collected 2,300 signatures at the time of this writing.

The petition was put together by HD NOW where the folks have collected a rather interesting list of supporting material which goes far farther than I have on supporting the conclusion that we’ve prematurely crossed over to the point where HD DVD has won the High Definition DVD competition.

Does Blu-Ray Die?

Blu-Ray has substantial storage capacity advantages for data and could survive as a high capacity personal computer storage medium. While expensive, one non-Sony vendor’s upcoming Blu-Ray laptop solution costs around $800 on top of a $3000 notebook but it gives that product an unmatched removable media capability. But this is a vastly better storage solution for a high-end PC it isn’t a high volume high definition movie watching solution.

So BluRay could indeed survive but probably not for movies only for PS3 games and high-end optical backup. The real question is does the PS3 survive or whether there will ever be a PS4. Some are saying that the PS3 is in deep trouble and some are saying the PS4 will never arrive with massive game defections from PS3 to Xbox.

Wrapping Up

The market wants one solution for High Definition video and we are already starting to see high definition downloads through services like Xbox live. Apple’s iTV is expected to go even further when it launches early next year. It may actually be too late for either of these platforms to move; if folks move aggressively to downloads for high definition content and if High Definition pay per view cable offerings continue to improve, even if I’m correct and HD DVD has won, it may have actually prevailed too late in the process to survive for long.

Be that as it may, with a 4x to 6x advantage by year end, you’d have to conclude that HD DVD has reached a point where it can’t lose and Blu-Ray is only now in a position to ensure both platforms lose. That last option still appears most likely if the market doesn’t move aggressively to one HD platform.

Source

Interesting because this guy last year said that Blu ray would be the outright winner, and no way Blu ray could fail. If this comes from him, surely this is bad news for Blu ray.

[psuedohippy]

Vivid only said their first movie was going to be on blue-ray. They also said they will make them on HD DVD but not at first. On the other hand both there are two other hd dvd adult titles that I know of, one is called Pirates. It is a 3 disk set and the other is called Island Fever. I could have got the island movies name wrong but Pirates for sure. That being said I want everyone to know that adult movies are satan in a box and I would never watch one on my HD dvd player. ;-)

[ReaperMojo]

only time will tell.

[joshcisn]

IMO DVD will be by far the most bought in players and movies. Sure we'll have both formats around and you'll be able to pick which one you want. The thing is people don't want to re-buy their entire DVD collections for only a 5% gain in looks and sound. New movies however sure they'll be more prone to buy either HD DVD or Blu-ray over a regular DVD.

Me personally won't touch Blu-ray or Sony products for that matter period. Let me point out that beta max lost to VHS back in the 70's, mini disc really never caught on other than in Sony products, and UMD is on it's way out if not already gone as Wal-mart, Best Buy and even the movie stuido companies are saying its just not worth it to them to carry/make UMD movies. I see Blu-ray as just another failed Sony pushed format, giving their track record I think that's a safe bet to make.

[Kona Palangi]

He (Rob Enderle) has some valid arguments but his basis is entirely too simplistic. I don’t put too much stock into what industry insiders say only time will tell. In the short term, I agree with Joshcisn that DVD will remain number one.

When VHS was upgraded to DVD it was a technological marvel. However, from what I have seen, the difference between new format and current DVD is almost non existent. It may have benefits in the near future with larger storage capacity and what not ... but right now it’s not relevant or necessary to the every day average consumer. My buddy showed me a Blu Ray movie on his PS3 and I saw only minor differences in quality > DVD (TV = Hitachi UltraVision 42' Plasma). Differences worth dropping a grand on for a stand alone player? Not a chance. Can the average consumer afford a stand alone? No. Until prices plummet, DVD will reign supreme.

[remixFA]

i agree, and dissagree.
1. i agree DVD will remain the main standard for many years. for its price point, the fact that almost everyone already has one, and the fact that unless you have a TV that can go to 1080, you will not notice ENOUGH difference to warrent such an expencive upgrade. Most people in the world by far DO NOT have 1080i or 1080p tvs.

2.Josh- I know the PS3 downscales any 1080 games to 480p if your tv doesnt support 1080i/p. If i remember, the Hitatchi plasma only goes to 720p, and would of been downscaled to 480p. That being said, im assuming that it does the same for blueray movies, which would account for you not being able to tell any real difference in movie quality. It was downscaled to DVD format (480p).

3. Assuming that neither format will eventually be a household name is kind of retarded. As it stands 10-15% of america has HDTVs, only a % of those TVs can support 1080i/p. It will be YEARS before HDdvd/blueray formats can have a chance to take over DVD format. It is also kind of assinign to beleive that people will choose digital DL as their main form of entertainment. People love to "own" their favorite movies, physically, so they can watch it when they please. digital downloading is a glorified version of renting. It will not kill blockbuster, it will probably always be an alternative.

4. the arguement over whether people will support a new digital media is a mute one. The same areguement was said over the conversion from VHS to DVD. "who would want to rebuy their collection just to have it on DVD??" ok, now show of hands.. who here still has a VHS collection that they regularly watch?? who here dumped the VHS collection and slowly built up a DVD collection?? It will happen again with the new format. Its inevitable!

5. Me, well I have a 57inch tv that supports 1080i. I notice the difference in 480p, 720p, and 1080i. Ill be getting that HDDVD addon for my 360 as soon as i can get my grubby lil hands on it!!!!!! (im not sure im DARING enough to watch a 1080 porn movie.... do you REALLY want to see THAT MUCH detail?!?!?!)

[Anderlation]

Originally Posted by remixFA

i agree, and dissagree.
1. i agree DVD will remain the main standard for many years. for its price point, the fact that almost everyone already has one, and the fact that unless you have a TV that can go to 1080, you will not notice ENOUGH difference to warrent such an expencive upgrade. Most people in the world by far DO NOT have 1080i or 1080p tvs.

Yet HD-DVD boasts that it has the HD version of the film on one side and the SD version on the other. For practically a few dollars more you can have the HD version aswell, so when you are ready to make the switch you already have a good few titles on offer.

2.Josh- I know the PS3 downscales any 1080 games to 480p if your tv doesnt support 1080i/p. If i remember, the Hitatchi plasma only goes to 720p, and would of been downscaled to 480p. That being said, im assuming that it does the same for blueray movies, which would account for you not being able to tell any real difference in movie quality. It was downscaled to DVD format (480p).

I know the PS3 can handle 480p, 720p and 1080p. 1080i is a moot point. If a game is made for 1080p and 720p and your TV doesn't have 720p or 1080p then it will downgrade to 480p. But if you have a HDTV that has 1080i and 720p it will go to 720p. This is quite bad as if your HDTV is 1080i native as you are getting a bad picture on every game, as it is downscaled!

3. Assuming that neither format will eventually be a household name is kind of retarded. As it stands 10-15% of america has HDTVs, only a % of those TVs can support 1080i/p. It will be YEARS before HDdvd/blueray formats can have a chance to take over DVD format. It is also kind of assinign to beleive that people will choose digital DL as their main form of entertainment. People love to "own" their favorite movies, physically, so they can watch it when they please. digital downloading is a glorified version of renting. It will not kill blockbuster, it will probably always be an alternative.

Ask Microsoft with its Video Marketplace, i think it is safe to assume that at least a million people tried or did download a HD version or SD version of a film. This point that MS have is critical, if done correctly, it could be a genious step for a console.

4. the arguement over whether people will support a new digital media is a mute one. The same areguement was said over the conversion from VHS to DVD. "who would want to rebuy their collection just to have it on DVD??" ok, now show of hands.. who here still has a VHS collection that they regularly watch?? who here dumped the VHS collection and slowly built up a DVD collection?? It will happen again with the new format. Its inevitable!

See my first point.

5. Me, well I have a 57inch tv that supports 1080i. I notice the difference in 480p, 720p, and 1080i. Ill be getting that HDDVD addon for my 360 as soon as i can get my grubby lil hands on it!!!!!! (im not sure im DARING enough to watch a 1080 porn movie.... do you REALLY want to see THAT MUCH detail?!?!?!)

Hell yes!